Relative Sales Performance Data for Some Pigment Classes

The following table presents recent (2015) sales and weight data for five pigment classes:

pigment class	sales	weight in metric tons (mt)	average unit sales price
specialty	$    4,500,000,000	175,000	$ 25,714
dyes & organics	$  15,000,000,000	2,100,000	$    7,143
titanium oxide	$  14,000,000,000	7,000,000	$    2,000
iron oxide	$    2,000,000,000	2,000,000	$    1,000
carbon black	$    1,200,000,000	1,200,000	$    1,000
totals	$  36,700,000,000	12,475,000	$    2,942

The sales and weight data are approximate (best estimated) amounts based on various sales and weight data associated with market and other reports on pigments found on the Internet.

Assuming the sales and weight data are approximately correct, I computed an average unit sales price ($ per mt) for each class.  The relative average unit sales prices, it seems to me, can be an indicator of technological and other challenges of bringing the classes to a demanding market.   And along with this, the relative average unit sales prices indicate the classes with expected higher gross profit margins (the higher the average unit sales price, the higher the expected gross profit margin).

Chemical and Metal Shortage Alert – February 2017

The purpose of this blog is to identify chemical and metal shortages reported on the Internet.  The sources of the information reported here are primarily news releases issued on the Internet.  The issue period of the news releases is February 2017.

Section I below lists those chemicals and metals that were on the previous month’s Chemical and Metal Shortage Alert list and continue to have news releases indicating they are in short supply.
Click here to read the January 2017 Chemical and Metal Shortage Alert list.

Section II lists the new chemicals and metals (not on the January alert).  Also provided is some explanation for the shortage and geographical information.  This blog attempts to list only actual shortage situations – those shortages that are being experienced during the period covered by the news releases.  Chemicals and metals identified in news releases as only being in danger of being in short supply status are not listed.

Section I.   Zinc:  global; mining not keeping up with demand

      

Section II.   Shortages Reported in February not found on the Previous Month’s List

None

Reasons for Section II shortages can be broadly categorized as: 

1.  Mining not keeping up with demand: none

2.  Production not keeping up with demand:  none

3.  Government regulations: none

4.  Sources no longer available: none

5.  Insufficient imports:  none

6.  Supply not keeping up with demand:  none

Estimating the Value of a Country's (Region's) Chemical Industry

I am assuming the chemical industry revenues that a country (region) is able to generate divided by the country's (region’s) population can be useful as a measure of that country’s (region’s) chemical industry value added to the country (region).   If this assumption is correct, then the following table is an estimate of the chemical industry value for various countries (regions):

area	revenues usd 2015	population 2015	revenues per person
Germany	205,000,000,000	81,000,000	2,531
South Korea	120,000,000,000	50,000,000	2,400
Gulf Cooperation Council countries	120,000,000,000	51,000,000	2,353
Japan	210,000,000,000	127,000,000	1,654
United States	490,000,000,000	319,000,000	1,536
NAFTA	625,000,000,000	441,000,000	1,417
European Union	660,000,000,000	508,000,000	1,299
France	85,000,000,000	66,000,000	1,288
China	1,100,000,000,000	1,400,000,000	786
Russia	85,000,000,000	144,000,000	590
Canada	20,000,000,000	35,000,000	571
Global	3,500,000,000,000	7,400,000,000	473
Brazil	85,000,000,000	200,000,000	425
South America	160,000,000,000	423,000,000	378
Asia	1,600,000,000,000	4,400,000,000	364
India	70,000,000,000	1,300,000,000	54

The table suggests that China’s chemical industry is about 14 times more valuable for China than India’s chemical industry is for India ($786 revenue per person vs. $54 revenue per person; 786/54 = 14.56).   And Germany’s chemical industry produces about twice the value for Germany as France’s chemical industry produces for France ($2531 revenue per person/$1,288 revenue per person = 1.97).

The Internet was used to find chemical revenues and population amounts.

A reasonably accurate measurement that indicates the value added by a country’s chemical industry to the country might be useful in measuring progress a country is making over time in increasing its chemical industry value.   Simply increasing a country’s revenues may not be sufficient in understanding how much value is being added by that increase.   Relating (rating) the increase to per persons could be more useful.

Some Interesting Data on the Huge Antwerp-Rotterdam Chemical Industry Cluster

A 2014 study entitled “Contribution to Future Oriented Energy Strategy for the Chemical Industry” deals with such topics as the impact of energy and feedstock costs on the competiveness of the Antwerp-Rotterdam (AR) chemical industry cluster.   (Click here to read this study.)  This cluster represents the third largest concentration of chemical companies in the world.

Some major strategic suggestions in the study for increasing the welfare of the chemical companies in the AR cluster include:

-          Increase the synergistic benefits that the cluster can provide to individual 

        chemical companies in the cluster;

-          Encourage cluster members to work together as a whole;

-          Develop cluster-wide expertise in various areas that can be used to influence

        government policy; and

-          Increase integration within the cluster.

In addition to these suggestions for increasing cluster members’ welfare from being in the cluster, data is provided in the study on the AR cluster production and performance.

Management science researchers have long suggested that industrial sector clusters, such as the AR chemical sector cluster, promote the welfare of the individual companies in ways not available to non-clustered companies.   This study should be of interest to other chemical industry clusters, both long-established and emerging.

A Dutch Program for Increasing Electrification in their Chemical Industry

The Dutch-backed program name VoltaChem aims to increase the use of electricity in chemical industry processes.   A VoltaChem white paper provides details on the program (click here to read this whitepaper).

A driving force in using increased electrical energy has to do with the ability to generate this electricity using renewable energy sources, which in turn will led to significant reductions in using fossil fuels in generating the electricity.  The reduction of fossil fuel use is needed in order for The Netherlands to meet European Union carbon dioxide emission standards.  The Netherlands, which currently gets about 10% of its energy from renewable sources, wants to substantially increase this percentage.  A major contribution to this increase is expected to be wind energy, with more major offshore wind farms planned.  Then hopefully this increased renewable energy supply will nicely satisfy a hoped-for increase in electricity demand by the chemical industry.

VoltaChem goals, which are long-term, include increasing chemical industry demands for electrification.   This includes: the use of electricity (versus fossil fuels) in heating processes needed in chemical production; using electricity in generating basic feed stocks such as hydrogen and ammonia; and using electrochemical process in converting feed stocks into higher-value chemical products.

Chemical and Metal Shortage Alert – January 2017

The purpose of this blog is to identify chemical and metal shortages reported on the Internet.  The sources of the information reported here are primarily news releases issued on the Internet.  The issue period of the news releases is January 2017.

Section I below lists those chemicals and metals that were on the previous month’s Chemical and Metal Shortage Alert list and continue to have news releases indicating they are in short supply. Click here to read the December 2016 Chemical and Metal Shortage Alert list.

Section II lists the new chemicals and metals (not on the December alert).  Also provided is some explanation for the shortage and geographical information.  This blog attempts to list only actual shortage situations – those shortages that are being experienced during the period covered by the news releases.  Chemicals and metals identified in news releases as only being in danger of being in short supply status are not listed.

Section I.   Zinc:  global; mining not keeping up with demand

      

Section II.   Shortages Reported in January not found on the Previous Month’s List

Building materials: New Zealand; supply not keeping up with demand

Butadiene:  Taiwan and China; production not keeping up with demand

Coking coal: India; supply not keeping up with demand

Natural latex: Malaysia; supply not keeping up with demand

Reasons for Section II shortages can be broadly categorized as: 

1.  Mining not keeping up with demand: none

2.  Production not keeping up with demand:  butadiene

3.  Government regulations: none

4.  Sources no longer available: none

5.  Insufficient imports:  none

6.  Supply not keeping up with demand:  building materials; coking coal; natural latex

Estimating Future Catalyst Revenues

An Internet search found estimated 2015 global revenues for the three major categories of catalysts.  The categories and revenues are: refining catalysts - $5 billion; environmental catalysts - $7.5 billion; and chemical processing catalysts - $4.8 billion.  These amounts were found in of market study descriptions on the Internet.

Using these estimated 2015 revenues, projected global revenues for each catalyst category were computed for 2016 to 2020.  These computed revenues are shown in the following tables:

revenues refining catalysts	2015	$              5,000,000,000
	2016	$              5,075,000,000
	2017	$              5,151,125,000
	2018	$              5,228,391,875
	2019	$              5,306,817,753	Used in calculating CAGR:
	2020	$              5,500,000,000	1.60%

revenues environmental catalysts	2015	$     7,500,000,000
	2016	$     7,695,000,000
	2017	$     7,895,070,000
	2018	$     8,100,341,820
	2019	$     8,310,950,707	Used in calculating CAGR:
	2020	$     8,750,000,000	2.6%

revenues chemical processing catalysts	2015	$     4,800,000,000
	2016	$     5,054,400,000
	2017	$     5,322,283,200
	2018	$     5,604,364,210
	2019	$     5,901,395,513	Used in calculating CAGR:
	2020	$     6,550,000,000	5.3%

 

The computations were done using proxy compound annual growth rate values (CAGR).  For refining catalysts, the proxy CAGR is based on the increase in global oil and gas production from 2009 to 2014. (Click here to see these production values.)  I am assuming that the 2009 to 2014 CAGR value computed from this production data likely will be close to 2015 to 2020 production data CAGR increases and that the revenue growth in refining catalysts will closely correlate with growth in oil and gas production.

For an environmental catalyst CAGR, I used 2.6%, which is the estimated CAGR from 2015 to 2021 for global automotive production growth.  (Click here for the global automotive production CAGR.)  I am assuming that 2015 to 2020 global environmental catalyst revenue growth rates will closely correlate with automotive production CAGR, since automobiles are assumed to be the major use of environmental catalysts.

For global chemical processing catalyst revenues, I used 5.3%, which is the estimated CAGR for the global plastics market from 2014 to 2020.  (Click here to see this plastic CAGR value.)  I am assuming that 2015 to 2020 global chemical processing catalyst revenue growth rates will closely correlate with global plastic growth rates, since plastics are assumed to be the major use of catalysts in the chemical processing category of catalysts.

The 2015 and projected total global revenues for all three catalyst categories, found in the three tables above, are shown in the following table:

	total revenues - three catalyst categories
2015	$            17,300,000,000
2016	$           17,824,400,000
2017	$            18,368,478,200
2018	$            18,933,097,905
2019	$            19,519,163,973
2020	$            20,800,000,000

These totals compare fairly will with amounts shown in the above referenced market studies.  This suggests that the proxy CAGRs, explained above, serve fairly well in projecting future catalyst revenues from an assumed current, correct value.