Wednesday, September 30, 2015

Ceramic Membrane Sales Growth

Recent market studies, summaries of which are found on the Internet, indicate that ceramic membranes are expected to show a global sales compound annual growth rate (CAGR) in the range of 10 to 12% over the next five years (2015 to 2020) (from the high $3 billion to the low $5 billion).

This sales CAGR is higher than for other ceramic categories.  For example, market studies indicate the advanced/engineering ceramic category will have a CAGR in the 5 to 5.5% range for the same period.  And, the ceramic coatings category is likely to be in the 7 to 8% CAGR growth range.

Ceramic membranes apparently are beginning to be used more frequently in water and other liquid filtration applications, replacing the use of polymer materials as filters.  An estimate found on the Internet suggests that ceramic membranes are now used in 35 to 40% of such filtrations.

Ceramic membranes are more resistant to harsh environments, have less maintenance costs, more mechanical strength, and longer operating life than polymeric materials.  But, they do cost more initially.


Saturday, September 19, 2015

Some Comments about “Big Data” Use in the Chemcial Industry

My recent searches on the internet for the use of “big data” analysis indicates to me that such analysis is growing in the chemical industry.

A leading chemical company that seems to be very active in pursuing the use of big data analysis in support of its operations is the Dow Chemcial Company.  I was able to identify from information on the internet the following 15 areas in which Dow is, or has been, pursuing use of big data analysis:

1.   Predict what products to invest in or divest.
2.   Predict the quality of a product before it is manufactured.
3.   Assess consumer sentiment.
4.   Predict how much product to make.
5.   Monitor plant equipment processes for problems.
6.   Monitor equipment processes for problems at multiple plants from a single location.
7.   Reduce error rates in sales forecasts from 40% to 10%.
8.   Assess the trustworthiness of external sources of data and information.
9.   Reduce errors in forecasting models
10.  Develop freight and logistics costs models.
11. Analyze raw material spending.
12.  Price finished products.
13.  Assist the agriculture industry through big data analysis.
14.  Make better personnel-related decisions.
15.  Monitor raw material characteristics. 

Successes by Dow in many of, if not all, of these 15 examples of using big data analysis should bring great value to a company, value which otherwise would be difficult to obtain.  Finding this information about Dow’s interest in big data analysis, I believe, likely indicates the potential of using big data analysis in the chemical industry.   Another indicator of the perceived potential of the use of big data analysis in the chemical industry might be recent increases of scholarly articles on big data and the chemical industry.

Using the search engine Google Scholar, I discovered that for 2014, Google Scholar found 106 scholarly articles that have in them the terms “big data” and “chemical industry”.  This is about a 2000% increase for such articles found for 2010.   The follow table shows the progression of the number of articles (and consequently the progressive interest in the subject) that has both “big data” and “chemical industry” terms in the articles: 
articles with "big data" and "chemical industry" using Google Scholar as the search engine

year
number of articles
2014
106
2013
63
2012
30
2011
8
2010
5



Based on the above indicators, it is likely that we are entering into a very exciting/productive period of using big data analysis leading to more efficient and effective decisions in the chemical industry.

Thursday, September 3, 2015

Indonesia Chemical Company Data

An extensive Internet search for Indonesian companies, with chemically-related businesses, and are also listed on the Indonesian Stock Exchange, identified the 19 companies listed in Table 1.  Also presented in Table 1 are the chemically-related businesses that the companies conduct.

Because the 19 companies are listed on the Indonesian Stock Exchange, financial data for the companies could easily be obtained at the stock exchange's website.  (Click here to go to the website’s page where company financial data can be obtained.)

Tables’ 2 and 3 provide 2014 and 2013 financial data for the 19 companies.  The largest company, in terms of sales, had $2.51 billion in 2014.   Most of the companies are much smaller in sales.  For 2014, the average gross profit margin percentage for the companies was 17% (16% 2013); the average operating income as a percentage of sales was 8% (9%, 2013); and the average net income as a percentage of sales was 5% (7%, 2013).

Table 1
company name
business focus
argha karga prima industry
plastic films
asia pacific fibers
polyester and other fibers production
asiaplast industries
flexible/rigid films, sheets
budi starch & sweetener
cassava-based products
chandra asri petrochemical
petrochemicals
duta pertiwi nusantara
plywood adhesive products
eterindo wahanatama
palm oil and biodiesel
indo acidatama
agri-chemicals ethanol, acetic acid, etc.
indopoly swakarsa
flexible packaging products
indorama synthetics
polyester & other fibers
intanwijaya international
formaldehyde & formaldehyde resins
lautan luas
chemicals production & distribution
polychem indonesia
polyester production
salim
seed & other agri-products
siwani makmur
flexible plastic packaging
soriwi agro asia corporindo
sorbitol syrup and powders
surya esa perkasa
natural gas refining/processing
trias sentosa
flexible packaging film
unggul indah cahaya
alkyl benzene


company name
2014 sales usd
2014 gross profit usd
2014 gp margin %
2014 op inc usd
2014 op inc % sales
2014 net income usd
2014 net inc % sales
chandra asri petrochemical
2,460,000,000
117,500,000
5%
24,900,000
1%
18,200,000
1%
salim
1,251,421,880
342,673,135
27%
204,165,273
16%
92,756,775
7%
indorama synthetics
726,100,000
75,200,000
10%
7,800,000
1%
4,000,000
1%
asia pacific fibers
493,600,000
-13,800,000
0%
-81,700,000
0%
-79,900,000
0%
lautan luas
492,472,399
85,229,174
17%
34,961,526
7%
16,811,643
3%
polychem indonesia
449,000,000
-15,800,000
0%
-34,300,000
0%
-24,700,000
0%
unggul indah cahaya
400,100,000
28,300,000
7%
5,300,000
1%
2,600,000
1%
budi starch & sweetener
232,853,797
23,185,012
10%
11,040,482
5%
2,375,376
1%
indopoly swakarsa
229,700,000
37,100,000
16%
13,400,000
6%
4,100,000
2%
trias sentosa
209,769,154
18,041,151
9%
8,865,841
4%
2,517,564
1%
soriwi agro asia corporindo
209,601,874
36,776,514
18%
18,158,247
9%
12,152,894
6%
argha karga prima industry
144,362,663
18,350,619
13%
8,656,741
6%
2,902,308
2%
eterindo wahanatama
83,640,013
175,644
0%
-7,987,621
0%
-12,303,446
0%
surya esa perkasa
39,900,000
25,300,000
63%
13,500,000
34%
10,300,000
26%
indo acidatama
39,544,998
7,803,613
20%
3,245,233
8%
1,212,780
3%
asiaplast industries
24,598,528
3,512,881
14%
1,363,332
6%
802,944
3%
duta pertiwi nusantara
11,107,394
2,835,396
26%
1,438,608
13%
1,212,780
11%
intanwijaya international
9,200,401
1,982,268
22%
953,496
10%
920,040
10%
siwani makmur
1,313,148
618,936
47%
234,192
18%
117,096
9%
averages


17%

8%

5%


Table 3
company name
2013 sales usd
2013 gross profit usd
2013 gp margin %
2013 op inc usd
2013 op inc % sales
2013 net income usd
2013 net inc % sales
chandra asri petrochemical
2,510,000,000
98,000,000
4%
17,100,000
1%
11,000,000
0%
salim
1,233,169,282
273,655,864
22%
164,453,524
13%
58,965,549
5%
indorama synthetics
758,400,000
64,000,000
8%
4,100,000
1%
770,000
0%
asia pacific fibers
565,100,000
-20,600,000
0%
-36,500,000
0%
-30,100,000
0%
lautan luas
532,547,126
86,823,289
16%
25,814,839
5%
11,793,110
2%
polychem indonesia
505,300,000
14,700,000
3%
14,700,000
3%
2,000,000
0%
unggul indah cahaya
439,000,000
45,700,000
10%
22,600,000
5%
10,300,000
2%
budi starch & sweetener
238,555,112
28,572,755
12%
14,486,025
6%
3,983,657
2%
indopoly swakarsa
233,500,000
40,400,000
17%
17,300,000
7%
9,500,000
4%
soriwi agro asia corporindo
197,975,671
36,242,919
18%
25,304,114
13%
15,609,620
8%
trias sentosa
188,782,617
21,924,041
12%
9,016,622
5%
3,064,351
2%
argha karga prima industry
154,424,738
19,463,274
13%
8,431,609
5%
3,212,926
2%
eterindo wahanatama
111,988,114
16,603,213
15%
10,418,795
9%
733,587
1%
surya esa perkasa
42,200,000
27,100,000
64%
18,000,000
43%
12,600,000
30%
indo acidatama
36,428,638
8,013,743
22%
3,705,079
10%
1,485,746
4%
asiaplast industries
26,149,132
4,234,376
16%
325,007
1%
250,720
1%
duta pertiwi nusantara
12,192,404
2,572,198
21%
3,955,799
32%
6,202,990
51%
intanwijaya international
7,540,162
1,662,178
22%
993,593
13%
956,449
13%
siwani makmur
213,576
-287,863
0%
-622,156
0%
-631,442
0%
averages


16%

9%

7%


Here are some comments based on the financial data in Tables 2 and 3 and also based on other information found on the Internet about Indonesia and its chemical industry:

1.  The average gross profit margin percentages are rather low.  For example, gross profit margin percentage averages for US chemical companies are in the upper 20% range.  This likely reflects that Indonesia has few companies yet able to develop unique products that can demand higher gross margins.

2.  The list of chemically-related businesses in Table 1 seem very limited with respect to meeting the chemical product needs of a country the size (about 250 million people) and the income per person (about $3,200) of Indonesia.  That in 2012 , Indonesia had an excess of about $13 billion of chemical-product imports over exports (imports about $23 billion; exports about $10 billion) supports the conclusion that Indonesian chemically-related companies are not yet meeting Indonesia’s needs.