Thursday, August 9, 2018

Bulk versus Nano Metal Oxide Production and Revenue Data



The following table suggests estimated profit gains when bulk metal oxides are processed into nano metal oxides:


global bulk production in millions of metric tons (2016)
global bulk revenues in billions USD (2016)
global nano production in millions of metric tons (2016)
global nano revenues in billions USD    (2016)
 bulk metal oxides revenues per metric ton (price)
 nano metal oxides revenues per metric ton (price)
increased sales rate when going to nano from bulk oxide
titanium oxide
6
12
0.13
1
 $        2,000
 $          7,692
3.8
zinc oxide
1.5
2
0.05
0.5
 $        1,333
 $       10,000
7.5
metal oxides


0.4
4

 $       10,000



The table’s data are rough approximations.  An extensive Internet search was conducted to find bulk and nano 2016 production and revenue amounts for titanium oxide and zinc oxide, as well as metal oxides collectively.  The estimates are shown in the table.  Because a range of production and revenue amounts were found, a best guest average represents what is shown in the table.  No data is shown for bulk metal oxides (as a group) because no such data could be found.

Using these approximations, prices (revenues received per unit provided) can be determined and are shown in the table.   From these prices, you can see that prices for nano oxides are higher than for bulk oxides.  For titanium oxide, the increase is at a 3.8 rate ($7,692/$2,000) and for zinc oxide it is 7.5 ($10,000/$1,333). 

Although the data in the table are rough approximations (because of limitations on the accuracy and the variability of the data found), these results are what one would expect.   The conversion of bulk metal oxides into nano oxides represents significant technical development and expertise and this should result in higher revenues per unit sold.  Such higher revenues should also lead to higher profits.   Such “conversion” effects are found in other chemical production areas, e.g., petrochemicals are higher margin products than crude oil.

The rate data in the table (e.g., the 3.8 and 7.5) might be useful for estimating what oxides are more profitable when converted to nano oxides.   For example, nano zinc oxide looks to be more profitable than nano titanium oxide.   And the same approach might be used in evaluating potential profits in chemical conversion industries, e.g.., crude oil to petrochemicals.



all nano markets/stats

Wednesday, August 1, 2018

Chemical and Metal Shortage Alert – July 2018


The purpose of this blog is to identify chemical and metal shortages reported on the Internet.  The sources of the information reported here are primarily news releases issued on the Internet.  The issue period of the news releases is July 2018.

Section I below lists those chemicals and metals that were on the previous month’s Chemical and Metal Shortage Alert list and continue to have news releases indicating they are in short supply. Click here to read the June 2018 Chemical and Metal Shortage Alert list.

Section II lists the new chemicals and metals (not on the June alert).  Also provided is some explanation for the shortage and geographical information.  This blog attempts to list only actual shortage situations – those shortages that are being experienced during the period covered by the news releases.  Chemicals and metals identified in news releases as only being in danger of being in short supply status are not listed.

Section I.  

Food-grade carbon dioxide: Europe; Mexico; production not keeping up with demand
Photoinitiators used with inks: Europe; supply not keeping up with demand

Section II.   Shortages Reported in July not found on the Previous Month’s List

Aluminum cans: United States; production not keeping up with demand
Chlorine: Ukraine; production not keeping up with demand
Copper: India; production not keeping up with demand
Hydrogen: California; supply not keeping up with demand
Polyethylene terephthalate (PET): Iran; sources no longer available
Zinc: India; production not keeping up with demand

Reasons for Section II shortages can be broadly categorized as: 

1.  Mining not keeping up with demand: none
2.  Production not keeping up with demand: aluminum cans; chlorine; copper; zinc
3.  Government regulations: none
4.  Sources no longer available: polyethylene terephthalate
5.  Insufficient imports:  none
6.  Supply not keeping up with demand: hydrogen


Thursday, July 12, 2018

Iranian versus Saudi Arabian Petrochemical Industry


I created the following table in hopes of more easily comparing Iran’s petrochemical industry to Saudi Arabia’s:

category
data
iran
saudi arabia
positive iran or positive saudi arabia or equal
demographics
population
81 M
33 M
+ir
demographics
land area
1.6 M square km
2.2 M square km
equal
demographics
median age
29
25
equal
demographics
percentage of population less than 30 years old
60% less than 30
60% less than 30
equal
human development
percentage STEM graduates
44%
23%
+ir
human development
gnp per person
$5,500
$19,830
+sa
human development
human development index
0.75, 69th country from top
0.84, 38th country from top
+sa
human development
unemployment rate
11 to 14%
5 to 6%
+sa
human development
college graduates
13%
23%
equal
human development
global innovation index
65 on country ranking (fast ascension)
61 on country ranking
equal
human development
literacy
85 to 88%
75 to 80%
equal
human development
percentage goes to college
> 60%
> 60%
equal
human development
percentage of population with college degree
18%
23%
equal
macroeconomics
foreign direct investment (net inflows)
0.6% of GDP
1.1% of GDP
+sa
macroeconomics
gnp
$447 B
$646 B
+sa
macroeconomics
inflation rate
9.9% 2017
-0.8% 2017
+sa
macroeconomics
international sanctions
yes
no
+sa
macroeconomics
governance
theocracy
monarchy
equal
petrochemical industry
natural gas reserves
34 trillion cu m
8 trillion cu m
+ir
petrochemical industry
petrochemical number of special economic zones
2 with 34 chemical plants
0
+ir
petrochemical industry
percentage of global petrochemical market
5 to 10%
10 to 15%
+sa
petrochemical industry
petrochemical capacity
70 to 75 M mt
90 to 100 M mt
+sa
petrochemical industry
petrochemical exports
20 to 25 M mt $10 to $15 B
$30 to 35B
+sa
petrochemical industry
petrochemical major agreements with foreign chemical companies/ states
in Iran - China
in China - SINOPEC; in USA -ExxonMobil; in Jubail - Total; in South Korea - SK; in Malaysia - Petronas; in yanbu - ExxonMobil
+sa
petrochemical industry
petrochemical production
55 to 65 M mt - 2017
75 to 90 M mt
+sa
petrochemical industry
petrochemical raw material (natural gas) costs
$2 per M btu
$0.75 per M btu (fixed by state)
+sa
petrochemical industry
petrochemical revenues
$20 to 25 B - 2016
$60 to 65 B - 2014
+sa
petrochemical industry
export markets
Turkey, China, India, South Korea
China, India, South Korea, Japan
equal
petrochemical industry
petrochemical capacity goals
120 M mt by 2020;  160 M mt by 2025
115 to 120 M mt
equal
petrochemical industry
petrochemical hub land area
asaluyeh - 52 square km; mahshahr - 45 square km
jubail - 90 square km; yanbu -49 square km
equal
petrochemical industry
petrochemical hubs (clusters)
asaluyeh;  marhshahr
jubail; yanbu
equal
petrochemical industry
petrochemical imports
$7.3 B - 2011
$16 B - 2015
equal
petrochemical industry
petrochemical industry history
from 1960s
from 1970s
equal
petrochemical industry
petrochemical planned state investments
$41 B, completing 36 sites; $20B developing 3rd hub at chabahar
$20 B Saudi Aramco - SABIC; $42 B - state
equal
petrochemical industry
petrochemical plant numbers
57
70
equal
petrochemical industry
petrochemical plant numbers that are state-owned
80%
60%
equal
petrochemical industry
petrochemical production focus on high margin products
yes
yes
equal



Data is shown for both Iran and Saudi Arabia in 40 topic areas (e.g., population, land area, etc.).   These topic areas are ones that I concluded are relevant to accessing a company’s overall petrochemical industry capability.   Also, only topics could be used where I was able to find (researching the Internet) what I considered to be sufficiently accurate data for the topic.  

I have categorized the topics to whether they deal mostly with demographics, human development, macroeconomics, or a petrochemical industry’s characterization.

for each of the four categories, I compared the data on Iran against the data on Saudi Arabia.  The results of these comparisons (plus Iran, plus Saudi Arabia, or equal) appear in the table for each topic under the “positive iran or positive Saudi Arabia or equal” column.

Based on the comparisons I made the following conclusions about how Iran’s petrochemical industry compares to Sadia Arabia’s:

Demographics

Overall positive for Iran because of the 2.5 times population advantage (81 million population versus 31 million).


Human Development

Overall positive for Saudi Arabia because of being much higher on the human development index (the 38th country from the top for Saudi Arabia versus 69th from the top for Iran).


Macroeconomics

Overall positive for Saudi Arabia because more of its macroeconomic data is better and because of international sanctions affecting Iran.


Petrochemical Industry

Overall positive for Saudi Arabia because of lower production costs and greater access to technology.


It seems to me that a country’s demographics, human development, and aspects of tis macroeconomics do influence the success of an industry, such as petrochemicals.   So, considering this and the above conclusions, I would say Saudi Arabia’s petrochemical industry at present is stronger (more successful) than Iran’s.