Some Data and Analysis on Cobalt Mined, Refined, and Consumed Amounts

The Internet was searched for data on amounts of cobalt mined, refined and consumed over the past few years, e.g., from 2011 to 2016.   Values found varied over a range.  The values in the following table (table 1) represent the amounts (in metric tons – mt) found that seemed to me to be most reliable.

table 1	mined amounts (mt)	refined amounts (mt)	consumed amounts (mt)	refined to mined yield
2011	109,000	82,300
2012	103,000	77,500	74,000	75%
2013	110,000	82,538	78,440	75%
2014	123,000	89,000	83,146	72%
2015	125,000	90,150	89,000	72%
2016	126,000	96,000	94,000	76%
cagr	2.9%	3.1%	6.0%

Also in the table are shown refined-to-mined yield percentages (the refined amounts column divided by the mined amounts column).    I am assuming that these percentages represent the limits of mined cobalt that can be processed (refined) with the processes used.  If correct, these percentages would represent a constraint that should be reviewed for improving.

The above table also shows the compounded annual growth rates (cagrs) for the amounts mined (2.9% from 2011 to 2016); the amounts refined (3.1% from 2012 to 2016); and the amounts consumed (6.0% from 2012 to 2016; a 2011 refined amount could not be found).  These cagr percentages were used to project estimated cobalt amounts mined, refined, and consumed for the period 2017 to 2022.  These projected amounts are shown in the following table (table 2).

table 2	mined amounts (mt)	refined amounts (mt)	consumed amounts (mt)	deficit amounts
2017	129,654	98,976	99,640	-664
2018	133,414	102,044	105,618	-3,574
2019	137,283	105,208	111,956	-6,748
2020	141,264	108,469	118,673	-10,204
2021	145,361	111,832	125,793	-13,962
2022	149,576	115,298	133,341	-18,042
cagr	2.9%	3.1%	6.0%

If the same cagrs for 2011(2012) to 2016 continue for the next 6 years (2017 to 2022), table 2 suggests that the amount of consumed cobalt starts to exceed the refined amount available (in table 1 refined amounts always exceed consumed amounts) and deficits in the amount of cobalt needed (consumed) compared to amounts available (refined) begin to exist.  Table 2 shows these deficit amounts.

Cobalt deficits over the next few years are being predicted by several analysts on the Internet.  The deficits shown in table 2 are probably too low because of the expected surge in electric vehicle use and the need for cobalt in these vehicles' batteries.   Projected annual consumed increases going forward from 2017 are likely to be much higher than the 6% used in table 2.

A conclusion is that mined cobalt needs to increase at a higher rate than in recent years.  Also, a higher process yield percentage (refined to mined yield) could help reduce possible future deficits.