An extensive research of the Internet will find many
estimates of annual global market sales values for catalysts. For example, the following table 1 shows
values that I found on the Internet:
year

sales
in $ billion

2001

10.5

2001

10.2

2005

11

2006

14

2007

13.5

2009

16.5

2009

14.89

2010

17.5

2010

14.04

2011

21

2012

19.2

2014

16.3

2015

16

2015

20.41

2015

19.2

2015

20.41

2016

19.5

2016

19.5

2017

26.4

2018

24.1

2018

24.1

2018

20.6

2019

21

2020

27.59

table 1


These estimates are made by market research firms, who then
post them on the Internet. Estimates are
also found in technical articles on various aspects of catalyst use. I have no idea how these estimates are made,
but I assume that good approaches and reasonable analysis are used. However, you can see in table 1 that
variations exist in the estimates. For
example, one estimate for 2010 is $17.5 billion and one is for $14.04
billion. I did a regression analysis on
the data in table 1 and found that the variations in the data are reasonably
small. For example, the Rsquared value
is 0.78. This tells me that although the
estimates vary, the variations are small and support the conclusion that the
various determinations are consistent with one another.
The regression analysis also, by providing coefficients a
and intercepts b for the linear equation y = ax + b, allows for computing
market sales value y for each year x. In
addition, the likelihood, at a 95% probability, that the market sales amount will
be in a range of y values can be determined.
The following table 2 shows the y values for years from 2001
to 2020, based on the linear equation, y = ax + b.
year

sales
in billions


y  std. dev.

y

y + std. dev.


2001

7.3

9.5

11.8

2001

7.3

9.5

11.8

2005

10.3

12.6

14.8

2006

11.1

13.3

15.6

2007

11.9

14.1

16.4

2009

13.4

15.6

17.9

2009

13.4

15.6

17.9

2010

14.2

16.4

18.7

2010

14.2

16.4

18.7

2011

14.9

17.2

19.4

2012

15.7

17.9

20.2

2014

17.2

19.5

21.7

2015

18.0

20.2

22.5

2015

18.0

20.2

22.5

2015

18.0

20.2

22.5

2015

18.0

20.2

22.5

2016

18.8

21.0

23.2

2016

18.8

21.0

23.2

2017

19.5

21.8

24.0

2018

20.3

22.5

24.8

2018

20.3

22.5

24.8

2018

20.3

22.5

24.8

2019

21.1

23.3

25.5

2020

21.8

24.1

26.3

table 2

Also shown is the range of y values that one can expect the
correct value to be within, with a 95% likelihood, based on the data in table
1. For example, for 2010, the overall
market value for all catalyst sales likely fell (with a 95% confidence level)
within a range of $14.2 billion to $18.7 billion.
The total market value for all catalyst sales are often
broken down into 4 categories of catalysts: catalysts for refineries; catalysts
used in polymerization; catalysts used in chemical synthesis; and catalysts
used in emissions control. And
estimates of annual sales values for these 4 categories, like the estimates for
the overall sales value for all catalysts, can be found on the Internet.
I did a regression analysis on each of the sets of data for
these categories, out of which I was able to create the following graphs:
You can see from the information in these graphs that the
Rsquared values are reasonably good.
Also, very interesting, is the x coefficient (a in the equation y = ax +
b) values for each category. The x
coefficient is an indication of the slope of the line; the expected rate of
increase of the y value (annual sales amount).
In other words, the x
coefficient value can be viewed as an indication of the expected sales increase
with time – the higher the coefficient, the greater the expected annual
increase in sales for the category. From
the graphs, x coefficients values determined are: emissions control, 0.60;
refining, 0.21; chemical syntheses, 0.21, and polymerization, 0.11.
That emissions control shows a much higher expected rate of
annual sales increases is consistent with what is reported on the Internet that
emissions control is the fastest growing catalyst group.
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