Estimating Future Catalyst Revenues

An Internet search found estimated 2015 global revenues for the three major categories of catalysts.  The categories and revenues are: refining catalysts - $5 billion; environmental catalysts - $7.5 billion; and chemical processing catalysts - $4.8 billion.  These amounts were found in of market study descriptions on the Internet.

Using these estimated 2015 revenues, projected global revenues for each catalyst category were computed for 2016 to 2020.  These computed revenues are shown in the following tables:

revenues refining catalysts	2015	$              5,000,000,000
	2016	$              5,075,000,000
	2017	$              5,151,125,000
	2018	$              5,228,391,875
	2019	$              5,306,817,753	Used in calculating CAGR:
	2020	$              5,500,000,000	1.60%

revenues environmental catalysts	2015	$     7,500,000,000
	2016	$     7,695,000,000
	2017	$     7,895,070,000
	2018	$     8,100,341,820
	2019	$     8,310,950,707	Used in calculating CAGR:
	2020	$     8,750,000,000	2.6%

revenues chemical processing catalysts	2015	$     4,800,000,000
	2016	$     5,054,400,000
	2017	$     5,322,283,200
	2018	$     5,604,364,210
	2019	$     5,901,395,513	Used in calculating CAGR:
	2020	$     6,550,000,000	5.3%

 

The computations were done using proxy compound annual growth rate values (CAGR).  For refining catalysts, the proxy CAGR is based on the increase in global oil and gas production from 2009 to 2014. (Click here to see these production values.)  I am assuming that the 2009 to 2014 CAGR value computed from this production data likely will be close to 2015 to 2020 production data CAGR increases and that the revenue growth in refining catalysts will closely correlate with growth in oil and gas production.

For an environmental catalyst CAGR, I used 2.6%, which is the estimated CAGR from 2015 to 2021 for global automotive production growth.  (Click here for the global automotive production CAGR.)  I am assuming that 2015 to 2020 global environmental catalyst revenue growth rates will closely correlate with automotive production CAGR, since automobiles are assumed to be the major use of environmental catalysts.

For global chemical processing catalyst revenues, I used 5.3%, which is the estimated CAGR for the global plastics market from 2014 to 2020.  (Click here to see this plastic CAGR value.)  I am assuming that 2015 to 2020 global chemical processing catalyst revenue growth rates will closely correlate with global plastic growth rates, since plastics are assumed to be the major use of catalysts in the chemical processing category of catalysts.

The 2015 and projected total global revenues for all three catalyst categories, found in the three tables above, are shown in the following table:

	total revenues - three catalyst categories
2015	$            17,300,000,000
2016	$           17,824,400,000
2017	$            18,368,478,200
2018	$            18,933,097,905
2019	$            19,519,163,973
2020	$            20,800,000,000

These totals compare fairly will with amounts shown in the above referenced market studies.  This suggests that the proxy CAGRs, explained above, serve fairly well in projecting future catalyst revenues from an assumed current, correct value.

Chemical and Metal Shortage Alert – December 2016

The purpose of this blog is to identify chemical and metal shortages reported on the Internet.  The sources of the information reported here are primarily news releases issued on the Internet.  The issue period of the news releases is December 2016.

Section I below lists those chemicals and metals that were on the previous month’s Chemical and Metal Shortage Alert list and continue to have news releases indicating they are in short supply. Click here to read the November 2016 Chemical and Metal Shortage Alert list.

Section II lists the new chemicals and metals (not on the November alert).  Also provided is some explanation for the shortage and geographical information.  This blog attempts to list only actual shortage situations – those shortages that are being experienced during the period covered by the news releases.  Chemicals and metals identified in news releases as only being in danger of being in short supply status are not listed.

Section I.   Zinc:  global; mining not keeping up with demand

      

Section II.   Shortages Reported in December not found on the Previous Month’s List

Ash:  United Kingdom; production not keeping up with demand

Nitrous oxide:  United States; supply not keeping up with demand

Reasons for Section II shortages can be broadly categorized as: 

1.  Mining not keeping up with demand: none

2.  Production not keeping up with demand: ash

3.  Government regulations: none

4.  Sources no longer available: none

5.  Insufficient imports:  none

6.  Supply not keeping up with demand: nitrous oxide

Germany’s Chemical Industry Embraces Industry 4.0 and Digitization

Internet searches find good evidence that the Germany chemical industry is intensely pursuing what is referred to as "Industry 4.0”.  A Deloitte 2016 article provides an excellent overview of what is met by Industry 4.0 and its implications for the chemical industry.  (Click here to read the article – PDF file.)

Implementing Industry 4.0 and increasing digitization throughout their industries is a high priority of the German government.  A study sponsored by the Federation of German Industries and carried out by Roland Berger Strategy Consultants provides good insights into the importance that German industry places on increased digitization in its industry.  You can read a report on this study by clicking here (PDF file).

The process of digitizing industrial processes, which has been going on for a long time, when combined with the concepts and capabilities associated with Industry 4.0 is believed to be leading to a 4^th industrial revolution.

German companies support this embracing of Industry 4.0.  Siemens discusses the digital factory, Industry 4.0, and seven facts to know about the future of manufacturing (click here). SAP has an extensive overview on how to prepare for the fourth industrial revolution (click here).  Rexroth Bosch explains how they can support Industry 4.0 (click here).  Pepperl + Fuchs present their perspectives on Industry 4.0 (click here).  These are just a few of the German companies that provide support to companies pursuing Industry 4.0 goals.

German chemical companies are pursuing Industry 4.0-related activities.  At this link (click here), you can read about how BASF is implementing Industry 4.0-related processes.  An Evonik publication has articles on its activities related to big data, digitization, and the “Internet of Things”, all important components in Industry 4.0 (click here – PDF file).

Such benefits as:  better products at less processing costs; more timely delivery of products to customers; lower use of raw materials, with less waste; and decreased energy use, including lower CO2 emissions are driving companies toward Industry 4.0.

Chemical and Metal Shortage Alert – November 2016

The purpose of this blog is to identify chemical and metal shortages reported on the Internet.  The sources of the information reported here are primarily news releases issued on the Internet.  The issue period of the news releases is November 2016.

Section I below lists those chemicals and metals that were on the previous month’s Chemical and Metal Shortage Alert list and continue to have news releases indicating they are in short supply. Click here to read the October 2016 Chemical and Metal Shortage Alert list.

Section II lists the new chemicals and metals (not on the October alert).  Also provided is some explanation for the shortage and geographical information.  This blog attempts to list only actual shortage situations – those shortages that are being experienced during the period covered by the news releases.  Chemicals and metals identified in news releases as only being in danger of being in short supply status are not listed.

Section I.  

Aluminum: China; supply not keeping up with demand

Coking coal: China; supply not keeping up with demand

      

Section II.   Shortages Reported in November not found on the Previous Month’s List

Steel:  Iran; production not keeping up with demand

Styrene:  Asia; production not keeping up with demand

Zinc:  global; mining not keeping up with demand

Reasons for Section II shortages can be broadly categorized as: 

1.  Mining not keeping up with demand: zinc

2.  Production not keeping up with demand: steel; styrene

3.  Government regulations: none

4.  Sources no longer available: none

5.  Insufficient imports:  none

6.  Supply not keeping up with demand: none

2015 Volumes and Revenues for Several Rubbers

I searched the Internet extensively to find total global volumes and revenues for as many synthetic rubbers as I could.  Apparently more than two dozen commercially-available synthetic polymeric materials are generally considered to be similar enough in properties and uses to natural rubber as to generically be referred to as a rubber.  (Click here for a list of these at a Wikipedia site.)  Of these synthetic rubbers, I was only able to find sufficient volume and revenue data on seven from which I could construct the following table:

synthetic rubber	2015 volume metric ton (mt)	2015 revenue (usd)	average price(usd)/ mt
styrene butadiene (sbr)	7,000,000	$ 10,000,000,000	$        1,429
silicon elastomers	2,000,000	$    6,000,000,000	$        3,000
polybutadiene (br)	3,500,000	$    5,000,000,000	$        1,429
ethylene propylene diene monomer (epdm)	1,300,000	$    2,800,000,000	$        2,154
polychloroprene (cr)	400,000	$    1,200,000,000	$        3,000
fluoroelastomers	35,000	$       700,000,000	$      20,000
acrylonitrile butadiene (nbr)	155,000	$       325,000,000	$        2,097
totals	14,390,000	$ 26,025,000,000

I suspect one reason I could find only data for these seven “rubber-like materials” is that they represent the vast majority of total volume produced and revenue generated for the commercially-available synthetic polymers in the rubber category (those listed at the Wikipedia site).

The totals shown in the table agree well with what can be found on the Internet for total synthetic rubber produced globally in 2015 and the global revenues generated by that total.

I could find no single Internet site (source) that provides comprehensive data such as shown in the above table.    Searching and analysis is needed of a variety of sites to find the necessary data from which I believe a reasonably good determination can be made of volumes and revenues. The data in the table may not be exact but likely falls within a "smallish" range that is.

One conclusion I have is that very likely much volume and/or revenue data on the Internet implies more accuracy than is warranted because such data represent estimates.   And such estimates cannot be as accurate as the data often implies. 

Chemical and Metal Shortage Alert – October 2016

The purpose of this blog is to identify chemical and metal shortages reported on the Internet.  The sources of the information reported here are primarily news releases issued on the Internet.  The issue period of the news releases is October 2016.

Section I below lists those chemicals and metals that were on the previous month’s Chemical and Metal Shortage Alert list and continue to have news releases indicating they are in short supply. Click here to read the September 2016 Chemical and Metal Shortage Alert list.

Section II lists the new chemicals and metals (not on the September alert).  Also provided is some explanation for the shortage and geographical information.  This blog attempts to list only actual shortage situations – those shortages that are being experienced during the period covered by the news releases.  Chemicals and metals identified in news releases as only being in danger of being in short supply status are not listed.

Section I.   None

      

Section II.   Shortages Reported in October not found on the Previous Month’s List

Aluminum: China; supply not keeping up with demand

Coking coal: China; supply not keeping up with demand

Construction materials: Ireland, Qatar; production not keeping up with demand

Methylene disphenyl diisocyanate: Europe; production not keeping up with demand

Tin: global; supply not keeping up with demand

Reasons for Section II shortages can be broadly categorized as: 

1.  Mining not keeping up with demand: none

2.  Production not keeping up with demand: construction materials; methylene diphenyl   diisocyanate

3.  Government regulations: none

4.  Sources no longer available: none

5.  Insufficient imports:  none

6.  Supply not keeping up with demand: aluminum; coking coal; tin

Chemical and Metal Shortage Alert – September 2016

The purpose of this blog is to identify chemical and metal shortages reported on the Internet.  The sources of the information reported here are primarily news releases issued on the Internet.  The issue period of the news releases is September 2016.

Section I below lists those chemicals and metals that were on the previous month’s Chemical and Metal Shortage Alert list and continue to have news releases indicating they are in short supply. Click here to read the August 2016 Chemical and Metal Shortage Alert list.

Section II lists the new chemicals and metals (not on the August alert).  Also provided is some explanation for the shortage and geographical information.  This blog attempts to list only actual shortage situations – those shortages that are being experienced during the period covered by the news releases.  Chemicals and metals identified in news releases as only being in danger of being in short supply status are not listed.

Section I.   Nickel:  global; mining not keeping up with demand

      

Section II.   Shortages Reported in September not found on the Previous Month’s List

None

Reasons for Section II shortages can be broadly categorized as: 

1.  Mining not keeping up with demand: none

2.  Production not keeping up with demand: none

3.  Government regulations: none

4.  Sources no longer available: none

5.  Insufficient imports:  none

6.  Supply not keeping up with demand: none