Estimating Future Catalyst Revenues

An Internet search found estimated 2015 global revenues for the three major categories of catalysts.  The categories and revenues are: refining catalysts - $5 billion; environmental catalysts - $7.5 billion; and chemical processing catalysts - $4.8 billion.  These amounts were found in of market study descriptions on the Internet.

Using these estimated 2015 revenues, projected global revenues for each catalyst category were computed for 2016 to 2020.  These computed revenues are shown in the following tables:

revenues refining catalysts	2015	$              5,000,000,000
	2016	$              5,075,000,000
	2017	$              5,151,125,000
	2018	$              5,228,391,875
	2019	$              5,306,817,753	Used in calculating CAGR:
	2020	$              5,500,000,000	1.60%

revenues environmental catalysts	2015	$     7,500,000,000
	2016	$     7,695,000,000
	2017	$     7,895,070,000
	2018	$     8,100,341,820
	2019	$     8,310,950,707	Used in calculating CAGR:
	2020	$     8,750,000,000	2.6%

revenues chemical processing catalysts	2015	$     4,800,000,000
	2016	$     5,054,400,000
	2017	$     5,322,283,200
	2018	$     5,604,364,210
	2019	$     5,901,395,513	Used in calculating CAGR:
	2020	$     6,550,000,000	5.3%

 

The computations were done using proxy compound annual growth rate values (CAGR).  For refining catalysts, the proxy CAGR is based on the increase in global oil and gas production from 2009 to 2014. (Click here to see these production values.)  I am assuming that the 2009 to 2014 CAGR value computed from this production data likely will be close to 2015 to 2020 production data CAGR increases and that the revenue growth in refining catalysts will closely correlate with growth in oil and gas production.

For an environmental catalyst CAGR, I used 2.6%, which is the estimated CAGR from 2015 to 2021 for global automotive production growth.  (Click here for the global automotive production CAGR.)  I am assuming that 2015 to 2020 global environmental catalyst revenue growth rates will closely correlate with automotive production CAGR, since automobiles are assumed to be the major use of environmental catalysts.

For global chemical processing catalyst revenues, I used 5.3%, which is the estimated CAGR for the global plastics market from 2014 to 2020.  (Click here to see this plastic CAGR value.)  I am assuming that 2015 to 2020 global chemical processing catalyst revenue growth rates will closely correlate with global plastic growth rates, since plastics are assumed to be the major use of catalysts in the chemical processing category of catalysts.

The 2015 and projected total global revenues for all three catalyst categories, found in the three tables above, are shown in the following table:

	total revenues - three catalyst categories
2015	$            17,300,000,000
2016	$           17,824,400,000
2017	$            18,368,478,200
2018	$            18,933,097,905
2019	$            19,519,163,973
2020	$            20,800,000,000

These totals compare fairly will with amounts shown in the above referenced market studies.  This suggests that the proxy CAGRs, explained above, serve fairly well in projecting future catalyst revenues from an assumed current, correct value.