In an earlier blog post (entitled “Some Comments on the US
Ethane Supply Status”; on January 24, 2018), I presented information that the
US Energy Information Administration expects the US production of ethane to be approximately
1.7 million barrels per day (M b/d) by the end of 2018. However, the ethane US domestic consumption
is expected to be approximately 1.4 M b/d, leaving a 300,000 b/d ethane surplus.
In this current blog, I provide some information on shipping
capacity available to transport (export) excess US ethane capacity to foreign markets. I also do some analyses related to how much of
the anticipated US 300,000 b/d ethane surplus these ships can handle in 2020.
In table 1 below are the names of current ships available
for shipping ethane, their ethane capacities, and the ships’ owners (operators). In table 2 are the ethane-transporting ships
under construction (or planned) for near-term (2018-2019) commissioning, their capacities,
and the ship owners (operators). The information
in the tables is based on Internet searching and may not represent completed
listings.
|
table 1 ship name (operating)
|
ethane capacity (cubic
meters)
|
ship owner (operator)
|
|
aurora
|
37,000
|
navigator holdings
|
|
eclipse
|
37,000
|
navigator holdings
|
|
nova
|
37,000
|
navigator holdings
|
|
prominence
|
37,000
|
navigator holdings
|
|
js ineos insight
|
27,500
|
ineos (evergas)
|
|
js ineos invention
|
27,500
|
ineos (evergas)
|
|
js ineos inspiration
|
27,500
|
ineos (evergas)
|
|
js ineos ingenuity
|
27,500
|
ineos (evergas)
|
|
js ineos intrepid
|
27,500
|
ineos (evergas)
|
|
js ineos innovation
|
27,500
|
ineos (evergas)
|
|
js ineos intuition
|
27,500
|
ineos (evergas)
|
|
js ineos independence
|
27,500
|
ineos (evergas)
|
|
gaschem beluga
|
38,000
|
hartman
|
|
gaschem orca
|
38,000
|
hartman
|
|
ethane crystal
|
87,187
|
reliance (mol mitsui
osk)
|
|
ethane emerald
|
87,187
|
reliance (mol mitsui
osk)
|
|
table 2 ship name
(planned for 2018/2019 commission)
|
ethane capacity (cubic meters)
|
ship owner (operator)
|
|
to be named
|
87,187
|
reliance (mol mitsui
osk)
|
|
to be named
|
87,187
|
reliance (mol mitsui
osk)
|
|
to be named
|
87,187
|
reliance (mol mitsui
osk)
|
|
to be named
|
87,187
|
reliance (mol mitsui
osk)
|
|
to be named
|
95,000
|
hartman
|
|
to be named
|
38,000
|
hartman
|
|
to be named
|
32,000
|
evergas
|
|
to be named
|
32,000
|
evergas
|
|
to be named
|
32,000
|
evergas
|
|
to be named
|
32,000
|
evergas
|
If the ethane shipping capacities shown in tables 1 and 2
are available in 2020 and the ethane surplus in 2020 will be 300,000 b/d, how
much of this 300,000 b/d excess US capacity can be shipped to overseas markets
by the shipping capacity represented in tables 1 and 2?
300,000 b/d equates to approximately 17,400,000 cubic meters
per year of ethane (300,000 b/d X 3 cubic meters/18.9 barrels X 365 days)
(pressurized ethane). So, how much
ethane can the 26 ships identified in the tables transport to foreign markets
in a year and how does this amount compare to 17,400,000 cubic meters?
Here are some assumptions used in answering these questions:
1) the ethane will be delivered either to ports in Europe or ports in India or China;
2) a round trip for a ship to a European port is 10,000 miles and takes 30 days;
3) a round trip for a ship going to an India or Chinese port is 20,000 miles
and takes 60 days; 4) only the large capacity ships (greater than 80,000 cubic
meters will be used for the Asian trade and the others for the European trade;
and 5) the ships will be in continued 365-day use.
With these assumptions, each ship should be able to make 12 round
trips to European ports (1 shipment per 30 days X 365 days) and each ship going
to Asian ports should be able to make 6 round trips during the year (1 shipment
per 60 days X 365 days).
With the ship capacities and assumptions given above, the total
ethane that can be delivered (exported) to overseas markets in 2020 is approximately
11 million cubic meters as shown in the following table 3:
|
table 3 ship capacity
(cubic meters)
|
number of annual trips
with ethane on board
|
total potential ethane
delivered in 2020 (cubic meters)
|
|
27,500
|
12
|
330,000
|
|
27,500
|
12
|
330,000
|
|
27,500
|
12
|
330,000
|
|
27,500
|
12
|
330,000
|
|
27,500
|
12
|
330,000
|
|
27,500
|
12
|
330,000
|
|
27,500
|
12
|
330,000
|
|
27,500
|
12
|
330,000
|
|
32,000
|
12
|
384,000
|
|
32,000
|
12
|
384,000
|
|
32,000
|
12
|
384,000
|
|
32,000
|
12
|
384,000
|
|
37,000
|
12
|
444,000
|
|
37,000
|
12
|
444,000
|
|
37,000
|
12
|
444,000
|
|
37,000
|
12
|
444,000
|
|
38,000
|
12
|
456,000
|
|
38,000
|
12
|
456,000
|
|
38,000
|
12
|
456,000
|
|
87,187
|
6
|
523,122
|
|
87,187
|
6
|
523,122
|
|
87,187
|
6
|
523,122
|
|
87,187
|
6
|
523,122
|
|
87,187
|
6
|
523,122
|
|
87,187
|
6
|
523,122
|
|
95,000
|
6
|
570,000
|
|
|
total
|
11,028,732
|
Assuming the assumptions and computations above are reasonably
correct, a conclusion is that a large amount of the 2020 excess of ethane will
not be able to be exported to overseas markets, e.g., 6.4 million cubic meters (17.4
million cubic meters less 11 cubic meters) due to lack of ship capacity. And if so, US ethane supply should considerably
exceed demand, putting downward pressure on ethane prices.
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