An exhausted Internet search was done to try to determine 2012
global use of neodymium in magnets found in the following five product
categories: hard drives; electric vehicles; electric bicycles; wind electric
generators; and mobile phones.
Determining the quantity of neodymium used in these products depended on
finding the following estimates: 1) a
reasonable range of the 2012 unit sales in each product category and 2) a
reasonable range of the quantity of neodymium used in each unit sold. What follows describes what was found for
each category.
A. Hard Drives. 2012 global hard drive sales was settled at
between 900 million and 1.04 billion. A
range of neodymium used in hard drives was settled at between 2 and 6
grams. This gives a total of between 1,800
and 6,240 metric tons of neodymium used in hard drives sold in 2012.
(For each product category, an exhaustive search of the
Internet was done to find sources for product sales and for the amounts of neodymium
used in the products. These sources can
be difficult to find, but sources were found for the data needed for each product. Sources include: individual analysts/scientists
estimates; market research product synopsizes (no reports were purchased or any
other payments made to find the information in this blog article); news
releases; company data; government data; conference presentation slides; trade
associations; and research institutes. I
settled on the data to use from these source sites based on my subjective
evaluation of the likelihood the sources and their data were reliable and what
was presented was sensible and consistent with other data and my analysis of
what I was finding. Further details on
the sources, data, and analysis used can be provided. Click “View my complete profile” to the right
to email me.)
B. Electric Vehicles. Global sales for electric vehicles (all
electric and hybrid) were settled at between 1,775,000 and 2,427,000. A range of neodymium use per vehicle was
settled at between 0.193 and 1.8 kg. This
gives a total of between 343 and 4,369 metric tons of neodymium used in electric
vehicles sold in 2012.
C. Electric Bicycles. A range of 2012 unit global sales of electric
bicyles was settled on as between 30 and 34 million. And, I settled on a range of neodymium used
in each bicycle as between 85 and 115 grams.
With these amounts for electric bicycles sold and neodymium used per bicycle,
and doing the math, gives a total of between 2,550 and 3,910 metric tons of
neodymium used in electric bicycles sold in 2012.
D. Wind Electric Generators. The range of 29,946 to 68,250 megawatts of
additional wind power generated in 2012 compared to 2011 was settled on. And, based on data found in my searching, 15%
of this additional power is estimated to have been delivered by generators
using neodymium-base magnets, or a range of 4,492 to 10,238 megawatts. A range of 0.12 to 0.4 metric tons was
settled on as the amount of neodymium used for generating one megawatt of power
from a wind electric generator. This
gives a total range of 539 to 4,095 metric tons of neodymium used in 2012
installed neodymium-based wind electric generators.
E. Mobile
Phones. The 2012 sales of mobile phones
(cell and smart) range was settled at between 1.6 and 1.75 billion units. The range of grams used in each phone was
settled at between 0.05 and 0.1 grams.
This gives a range of 80 to 175 metric tons of neodymium used in mobile
phones sold in 2012.
Adding up the low and high neodymium-use range for each of
the above five product categories in which neodymium is used gives a low amount
of 5,312 metric tons and a high amount of 18,789 metric tons of neodymium used
in these products sold in 2012.
Some conclusions from the above work are:
1. Too many data
variables, gaps, and uncertainties and needed estimates and assumptions exist
to ever be able to determine one amount for total neodymium used in a year with
any degree of confidence that the amount is correct. However, a range can be determined.
2. Whenever an
element (e.g. the rare earth element neodymium) or a chemical compound is used
in multiple products, similar uncertainties are likely in estimating the
quantity of that element or chemical compound that was used during the year. A range is best provided.
3. Using persistent
and skillful search and the right analytical skills, the Internet can be a
source of data for quantities of chemicals used.
4. Chemical use data
for a year can be determined from two sets of data: sales and unit quantities. The accuracy of the chemical use data depends
on the accuracy of these two data sets.
5. The use data is
for product sales. It does not include
neodymium mined but not used in the products represented by the sales data, in
products made but not sold, and neodymium lost as waste in the manufacturing
process.
